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Traffic Risk in PPPs, Part II: Bias in traffic forecasts—dealing with the darker side of PPPs

Matt Bull's picture


Photo: Susanne Nilsson| Flickr Creative Commons

This is the second of a three-part series on traffic PPPs.
 

"It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so."

“The Big Short” 
 
Forecasting traffic accurately is a very difficult and thankless task, as I explained in my previous blog: Traffic Risk in Highway PPPs, Part I: Traffic Forecasting. As such, this gives rise to very real financial risks if these forecasts turn out to be wrong. This risk has crystallized many times as manifested in high-profile distressed projects, bankruptcies, renegotiations and bailouts.

So what’s driving the inaccuracy and resulting risk in traffic forecasts? In the forthcoming Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) and Global Infrastructure Facility (GIF) publication, Toll Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk, which will be published on the PPP Knowledge Lab later this month, we postulate that forecasting inaccuracy comes from three sources:

If you know what stakeholders really think, can you engage more effectively?

Svetlana Markova's picture

The World Bank Group surveys its stakeholders from country governments, development organizations, civil society, private sector, academia, and media in all client countries across the globe. Building a dialogue with national governments and non-state partners based of the data received directly from them is an effective way to engage stakeholders in discussions in any development area at any possible level.

Let's take the education sector as an example to see how Country Survey data might influence the engagement that the Bank Group has on this highly prioritized area of work.

When Country Surveys ask what respondents identify as the greatest development priority in their country, overall, education is perceived as a top priority (31%, N=263) in India.1 However, in a large country, stakeholder opinions across geographic locations may differ, and the Country Survey data can be 'sliced and diced' to provide insight into stakeholders' opinions based on their geography, gender, level of collaboration with the Bank Group, etc. In India the data analyzed at the state level shows significant differences in stakeholder perceptions of the importance of education. The survey results can be used as a basis for further in-depth analyses of client's needs in education in different states and, therefore, lead to more targeted engagement on the ground. In the case of the India Country Survey, the Ns at the geographical level may be too small to reach specific conclusions, but this example illustrates the possibility for targeted analysis.

Calling out to nature enthusiasts and shutterbugs!

Tashaya Anuki Premachandra's picture

Enter Sri Lanka’s #worldenvironmentday photo competition



Deadline – 30 June, 2017

Biodiversity is the way so don’t let nature go astray!

If you believe in this motto, then why don’t you participate in our exciting photo competition?
We’d love to see photos of Sri Lanka’s majestic animals and landscapes from your lens. This is your opportunity to share aesthetically pleasing photographs for a cause that you believe in. Enter your creative photo, with a short statement describing the photo, for a chance to win an exciting prize. Here’s how it works:

Poland's regions: from lagging to catching up

Anna Wellenstein's picture
 
Rzeszow, Poland. Photo by Terra Libera via Flickr Creative Commons
Rzeszow, Poland. (Photo by Terra Libera via Flickr Creative Commons)


On May 31 we had the pleasure of presenting the first phase of the Poland Catching-up Regions Program, an initiative of the European Commission and the World Bank. In just over one year, this initiative has successfully addressed a number of key development challenges faced by two "lagging regions" in Poland – Podkarpackie and Świetokrzyskie.

The initiative's successes range from faster business registration in Rzeszow and Kielce (the capitals of the two regions, respectively) to the setting-up of a vocational education training system in Świteokrzyskie and design of a Technology Transfer Center in Rzeszow. Partnered with outstanding teams from the European Commission and Poland, the World Bank was able to support this progress by bringing together global expertise and hands-on collaboration in both design and implementation of policies. This is important for Poland and for the lessons it provides for other developing countries. 

From subsistence laborer to Amazon seller: A story from Bihar, India

Mio Takada's picture
 JEEViKA
Kuraisa creating traditional lac bangles . Photo Credit: JEEViKA


Kuraisa lives in the Majhaulia village in Muzaffarpur district of Bihar, India. As an artisan, she and her family create  traditional lac bangles – colorful bracelets made of resinous materials and usually molded in hot kilns – in their small home production unit.
 
In early 2016, Kuraisa joined a self-help group made up of other lac bangle producers and supported through the World Bank’s Bihar Rural Livelihoods Project (BRLP), also known locally as JEEViKA.
 
The self-help group taught Kuraisa new design techniques and loaned her $2,300 to start her own business. One year later , Kuraisa has added two more production units to her home, which provide full time jobs to her relatives  and to as many as 6 additional workers during peak season.
 
Kuraisa’s annual business income has now tripled to $10,000. The self-help group has expanded and nearly 50 artisan families in the village have joined, giving rise to a village enterprise cluster with an annual revenue of $450,000.

What is the first step for organizing Peru’s cities?

Zoe Elena Trohanis's picture

Traffic Jam in Lima Peru

My job brought me and my family to Lima, Peru 11 months ago. In case you have never visited Lima before, Lima is in many ways, a lovely city – it has fantastic views of the Pacific Ocean (you can surf right from the local beaches), great food, and vibrant neighborhoods, including a historic city center with Spanish architecture and churches. On the other hand, Lima is also know for its terrible traffic, unplanned urban growth, and informality.

As an urban development specialist, I can’t help but wonder how Lima could be better organized so residents can better enjoy all of the services and amenities the city has to offer. Is it possible?

Standing #WithRefugees: Helping Jordan with the Provision of Health Services to Syrian Refugees

Aakanksha H Pande's picture
Syrian refugee children at Za’atari Camp, Jordan
Photo credit: Aaka Pande, March 15, 2017

March 15, 2017. She looked at me curiously, sipping on her juice box. Her pink sweater in contrast to her anemic pallor. If it had not been for the drip in her right arm, she could be any five year old child. Except she was not. She was a refugee, one of the more than 650,000 Syrians that Jordan has been hosting since the start of the war. Exactly six years ago, the civil war in Syria had started a couple of miles away. Six years later the war continued. It was all this girl had seen in her lifetime.

Of pigs, pythons and population growth – setting the record straight

Maitreyi Bordia Das's picture
The Nairobi Central Business District.
Photo: Sarah Farhat/The World Bank


I am constantly startled by references to “population growth” as a cause of a number of development challenges.  Whether it’s urbanization, food security, or water scarcity, all too often “population growth” is cited as a cause for pessimism or even a reason not to strive for progress.  I can almost see Thomas Malthus grinning at me from the shadows.

It gets worse. I recently reviewed a paper where higher fertility among minorities was touted as an explanation for their poverty! A few months ago, a respected professional wrote asking why we weren’t doing more on family planning, since fertility in Africa would pretty much stymie any efforts to provide infrastructure-based services! I hear statements to this effect routinely from policy makers in charge of infrastructure ministries and projects (“how can we keep up with the population?” or “nothing we do will be enough unless we control the population”) but am always amazed when I hear them from scientists of different hues.

So I thought I’d try to set the record straight:

Odds are you’re measuring son preference incorrectly

Seema Jayachandran's picture
When investigating son-biased fertility preferences, the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) offer the go-to survey questions:
  • If you could go back to the time you did not have any children and could choose exactly the number of children to have in your whole life, how many would that be?
  • How many of these children would you like to be boys, how many would you like to be girls, and for how many would it not matter if it’s a boy or a girl?

Achieving results against the odds in violent contexts

Richard Hogg's picture
Afghan children walk pass a bombed bus in 2016, Mohammad Ismael/ REUTERS


In Afghanistan violence is a daily fact of life. The United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan released their 2016 Annual Report on Protection of Civilians in Afghanistan in February, which documented 11,418 casualties in 2016, a 3% increase since 2015, including 3,498 deaths. Child casualties rose by almost a quarter (24%)—to 923 killed and 2,589 wounded. As a result, there are always lots of questions about how you deliver services in parts of the world like Afghanistan that are affected by ongoing, day to day violence.

Increasingly we live in a world where poverty and violence are deeply interconnected, and if we are to affect the former we have to deal with the latter. But both services and violence come in so many different forms that disentangling the relationship is tough. What works in one context may not work in another. It is too easy to say that nongovernmental organizations are best at delivering services in situations where state authority is contested, just as it may be false to suggest that state delivery of services is always likely to build state legitimacy in the eyes of citizens. The relationships between service delivery and violent conflict are more nuanced than this on the ground and require context-specific analyses that try to understand the nature of the political settlements around conflict, what drives violence and what is the nature of the bargains being struck by local and national elites that either allow or block service delivery.

Well, we have recently tried to do this in a new publication which has just come out, called “Social Service Delivery in Violent Contexts: Achieving Results Against the Odds”.  The report tries to disentangle what works and what doesn’t based on research in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Nepal. It probes how social service delivery is affected by violent conflict and what the critical factors that make or break successful delivery are. 


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