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Disaster risk and school infrastructure: What we do and do not know

Sameh Wahba's picture
Credit: Tracy Ben/ Shutterstock

“At 14:28:04 on May 12, 2008, an 8.0 earthquake struck suddenly, shaking the earth, with mountains and rivers shifted, devastated, and parted forever….” This was how China’s official report read, when describing the catastrophic consequences of the Sichuan earthquake, which left 5,335 students dead or missing.
 
Just two years ago, in Nepal, on April 25, 2015, due to a Mw 7.8 earthquake, 6,700 school buildings collapsed or were affected beyond repair. Fortunately, it occurred on Saturday—a holiday in Nepal—otherwise the human toll could have been as high as that of the Sichuan disaster, or even worse. Similarly, in other parts of the world—Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Haiti, Ecuador, and most recently Mexico—schools suffered from the impact of natural hazards. 
 
Why have schools collapsed?

Where does Chinese development finance go?

Tariq Khokhar's picture

This post looks at the recently updated “Global Chinese Official Finance Dataset” from research group AidData. The post is also available here as an R Notebook which means you see the code behind the charts and analysis.

Credit: A city park in Tianjin, China. Photo: Yang Aijun / World Bank
Credit: A city park in Tianjin, China. Photo: Yang Aijun / World Bank

China has provided foreign assistance to countries around the world since the 1950s. Since it’s not part of the DAC group of donors who report their activities in a standard manner, there isn’t an official dataset which breaks down where Chinese foreign assistance goes, and what it’s used for.

A team of researchers at AidData, in the College of William and Mary have just updated their “Chinese Global Official Finance” dataset. This is an unofficial compilation of over 4,000 Chinese-financed projects in 138 countries, from 2000 to 2014, based on a triangulation of public data from government systems, public records and media reports. The team have coded these projects with over 50 variables which help to group and characterize them.

Activity-level data on an increasingly important donor

This dataset is interesting for two reasons. First, China and other emerging donors are making an impact on the development finance landscape. As the Bank has reported in the past (see International Debt Statistics 2016), bilateral creditors are a more important source of finance than they were just five years ago. And the majority of these increases are coming from emerging donors with China playing a prominent role.

Second, this dataset’s activity-level data gives us a look at trends and allocations in Chinese bilateral finance which can inform further analysis and research. Organizations like the World Bank collect data on financial flows directly from government sources for our operational purposes, but we’re unable to make these detailed data publicly available. We compile these data into aggregate financial flow statistics presented from the “debtor perspective”, but they’re not disaggregated by individual counterparties or at an activity-level. So there can be value added from sources such as AidData’s China dataset.

A detailed view, but only part of the picture of all financial flows

However, this dataset has limitations. It only presents estimates of “official bilateral credits”. These are flows between two governments, and are just one part of the total financial flows coming from China. By contrast, the World Bank is able to integrate the granular data it collects from countries into the full set of financial flows to and from its borrowing countries. This situates official bilateral credit among the broader spectrum of providers of long-term financing (such as bondholders, financial intermediaries, and other private sector entities), sources of short-term debt (including movements in bank deposits), and equity investments (foreign direct and portfolio investments). This data integration leads to better quality statistics.

In short, AidData’s China dataset provides more detail on one type of financial flow, but is likely to be less reliable for a number of low-income countries. With these caveats in mind, I’ve done a quick exploration of the dataset to produce some summary statistics and give you an idea of what’s inside. 

Looking at foreign assistance by type of flow

First, let’s see what the trends in different types of foreign assistance look like. AidData researchers code the projects they’ve identified into three types of “flow”:

  1. Official Development Assistance (ODA), which contains a grant element of 25% or more and is primarily intended for development.
  2. Other Official Flows (OOF), where the grant element is under 25% and the the financing more commercial in nature.
  3. Vague Official Finance, where there isn’t enough information to assign it to either category.

Here are the total financial values of the projects in AidData’s dataset, grouped by flow type and year:

It looks like more Chinese finance is classed as OOF ($216bn in the period above) than ODA ($81bn), and that 2009 is a bit of an outlier. With this dataset, we next can figure out which countries are the top recipients of ODA and OOF, and also which sectors are most financed.

Flooded rivers: taking a bird’s eye view

Zuzana Stanton-Geddes's picture
When a river swells beyond its usual patterns, the impact on its surroundings can be devastating. In 2014, 51 people lost their lives and over 20% of Serbia’s population were affected by floods when eight rivers spilled over their banks. Photo credit: Dusan Milenkovic / Shutterstock.com
Floodplains are attractive areas for development, with over 2 billion people living within the world’s 10 largest river basins. Yet, they are also at particular risk from overflowing rivers. Globally, river floods affect more than 21 million people. By 2030, due to climate change, population growth, and rapid urbanization, this number could rise to 54 million.

The growing economic clout of the biggest emerging markets in five charts

Ayhan Kose's picture

Global economic growth is accelerating. After registering the slowest pace since the 2007-2009 financial crisis in 2016, global growth is expected to rise to a 2.7 percent pace this year and 2.9 percent over 2018-19.

While much has been said about better economic news from the major advanced economies, the seven largest emerging market economies—call them the Emerging Market Seven, or EM7 – have been the main drivers of this anticipated pickup.

Chart 1:

The contribution of the seven largest emerging market economies to global output has climbed substantially over the last quarter century.

The EM7 -- Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey – accounted for 24 percent of global economic output over 2010-2016, up from 14 percent in 1990s. Although this is a smaller share than the Group of Seven major industrialized economies, the G7’s portion of global economic output has narrowed to 48 percent from 60 percent over the same time frame.
 

Contribution to global output (percent)

Fredo or Michael? Parents play favorites among siblings

Shwetlena Sabarwal's picture

In The Godfather II, Vito Corleone chooses his younger son, Michael, instead of his older son, Fredo, as his successor. This decision is based on Michael's intelligence and ability. Fredo, who is considered weak, is dismissed to do more menial tasks for the family. This has huge implications for Michael, Fredo, and the Corleone saga. 


CC (The Godfather) Image courtesy of Insomnia Cured Here on Flickr

What makes parents decide to "invest" in one child over another? In economics, a key idea is that parents either reinforce or compensate for children’s endowments, such as health or intelligence. They reinforce by investing more in the human capital of their better-endowed children. Or they compensate by investing more in their worse-endowed children to reduce inequality among siblings. The core notion is : either parents are striving for equity (the compensating strategy) or efficiency (the reinforcing strategy of Vito Corleone).

Chongqing, China: Revitalizing urban growth, sustainably

Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez's picture
China is shifting its focus away from urban expansion toward regional revitalization and urban regeneration. Chongqing, a megacity in southwestern China, is exploring ways to regenerate urban growth and build resilient, livable, and sustainable communities.  

What are Chongqing's plans? How will they affect the lives of the city's residents? Watch a video as World Bank Senior Director Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez (@Ede_WBG) and Deputy Director Zhou Tao from the Chongqing Municipal Development and Reform Commission discuss urban regeneration
 
 

Related:


 

Three policies to promote a more inclusive future of work

Luc Christiaensen's picture
 Arne Hoel/World Bank
Even if the technologies are available, businesses and individuals often lack the necessary skills to use them. And these skill gaps exist at multiple levels. 
(Photo: Arne Hoel/World Bank)

As we explained in previous posts, digital technologies present both threats and opportunities for the employment agenda in developing countries. Yet many countries lack the means to take full advantage of these opportunities, because of limited access to technology, a lack of skills, and the absence of a broad enabling environment, the so-called “analog” complements.


A new front in the climate fight: innovative finance

Miria Pigato's picture
 Innovate4Climate Finance & Markets Week. Photo: World Bank / Simone D. McCourtie


What does public debt have to do with combatting climate change?
 
A few years ago, this would have seemed a strange question, as debt management and climate policy have traditionally been regarded as unrelated fields. But at a workshop at the annual Debt Management Forum in Vienna on May 22, 2017, debt managers from 50 developing countries discussed the role of emerging debt instruments such as green bonds and blue bonds, in raising capital for climate-friendly projects that range from reforestation to renewable energy.

While green and blue bonds resemble more traditional debt instruments in terms of structure and returns, they represent a novel approach to climate finance. Created just ten years ago, the total value of green bonds has grown at a spectacular pace, reaching US$82.6 billion in 2016. By the end of 2017, the total value of green bonds will likely exceed US$100 billion.

Policy shifts to strengthen China’s power sector reform

Yao Zhao's picture
Over the past few years, China saw more investment and installation in renewable energy than any other country in the world. In fact, in the period between 2010 and 2015, investment in the sector reached $377 billion, more than the next two countries - the United States and Germany – combined. China has 150 GW wind power and 77 GW solar photovoltaic power capacity compared to the U.S., for example, which has 80 GW in wind and 35 GW solar PV.

China has performed well above the global average, shined as the regional leader in East Asia, matched, if not outperformed, OCED countries in many dimensions, many countries with much lower investments and capacity have scored higher on renewable energy indicators.

Why the discrepancy?

The World Bank's Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy (RISE) could shed some light on the issue. Launched in February 2017, RISE is a policy scorecard of unprecendented breadth and depth covering energy access, energy efficiency and renewable energy in 111 countries. It focuses on regulatory frameworks in these countries and measures that are within the direct responsibility of policy-makers. The result is based on data made available to the team at the end of 2015 and thoroughly validated.
 
 

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